Saturday, July 30, 2011

NFL Free Agency: Joseph Addai's Resigning Drastically Improves the Indy Offense

If you told 100 Colts fans that Indianapolis has re-signed Joseph Addai, 50 of them would say, “Great!” while the other 50 would say, “Not him.”
It's happened. Addai re-signed with the Colts late Saturday night.
Addai is a lightning rod for Colts fans; some love him, others can't stand him.

Ever since being drafted 30th overall in 2006, he has had an up-and-down career. Addai rushed for over 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns while catching 40 passes his rookie year, earning himself a trip to the Pro Bowl.

Throughout the next two years, Addai's career took a tailspin. His rushing yards and yards-per-carry both dropped.
In the 2009, 2010 and 2011 seasons, Addai's YPC increased, but he missed time in each year.
Addai has also drawn criticism for not running hard enough and being too injury prone.
Some Colts fans have never forgiven Addai for those things.

However, they don't realize that Indianapolis' offensive line has been a revolving door of junk since the Colts Super Bowl win in 2006.

Now with a revamped offensive line with two new high draft picks on it, Addai will get his best opportunity to shine since 2006.
Addai is the best running back in the league... for the Colts.

Indy's pass-heavy offense requires its back to be involved in pass blocking more so than other teams. Addai is one of the best at that skill.
His ability to pick up a blitzing linebacker is matched by few backs in the league.

Also due to the Colts' offensive scheme, their running backs must catch the football well. Addai could move to slot wide receiver right now and be productive for most teams. He runs crisp routes and makes smooth catches, even in traffic.

As far as the actual running of the ball goes, Addai is no slouch there either. He is extremely shifty and can make even the most consistent tacklers miss. When his blocking gives him a decent hole, he can burst through it as well as anybody.
Addai also falls forward on almost every touch, giving Indy that extra yard or two when needed.

If Addai and his line stay healthy for 16 games this season, he has a chance to be the MVP not named Peyton Manning of the Colts.

Baltimore Ravens Baltimore Ravens Team Questions: Wide Receiver and Mount Cody

Offense – Will a legitimate deep threat emerge for Baltimore? 

Answer: Not as much as it hopes.
Baltimore's offense was tremendous in 2009, it finished 9th in points scored and 13th in yards. After adding star wide receiver Anquan Boldin via trade from Arizona, most thought the Raven's offense would only improve. But surprisingly, it took a step backward in 2010, finishing 16th in points scored and 22nd in yards gained. Some thought Joe Flacco regressed in his third year, but he threw more touchdowns, less interceptions and had a higher yards per attempt in 2010 when compared to 2009. Could it be that Boldin didn't fit in as much as Baltimore had hoped he would.
Boldin's style is a bruising, physical slower one. He plays wide receiver like a running back with a chip on his shoulder. Boldin's physical nature forces him to play slower than most wide receivers.
What Baltimore needs is to make its offense more explosive. To do that, they need a fast wide receiver to complement Boldin.
The Ravens thought they had that last season when they signed Donte Stallworth to a one-year deal. Stallworth turned out to be worthless for Baltimore, catching only two passes for 82 yards. He won't return to Baltimore in 2011.
The Ravens also drafted Maryland's Torrey Smith in the 2011 draft. Smith, a six-foot one, 204 pound speed demon ran a 4.43 40-yard dash at the combine. Smith can provide exactly what Baltimore needs–someone to stretch the opposing defenses.
But Smith is just a rookie, and a raw one at that. His route-running needs to improve before he can fulfill his potential.
So unless Smith learns extremely quickly or a unknown free agent comes into play, Ravens' fan will be forced to watch Baltimore's fail to live up to expectations.

Defense – Can Terrence Cody emerge as a dominant force?

Answer: Yes.
What makes Raven's GM Ozzie Newsome so great at his job is that he doesn't overreact to needs.
Baltimore's biggest needs going into the 2010 draft were cornerback and tight end.
When its first-round pick came around at 25, the number one tight end in the draft, Oklahoma's Jermaine Gresham was already off the board.
Instead of reaching for a cornerback at 25 and “filling a need”, Newsome saw an opportunity to gather more picks by trading down with Denver.
Using their own second-round pick, the Ravens selected Alabama nose tackle Terrence Cody.
Although his stats didn't show it, Cody, or "Mount Cody" as he's sometimes known, was a dominant force at Alabama. He was the anchor for Nick Saban's 3-4 defense, which finished second in the country in 2009.
He, like all players, has flaws.
His weight can become an issue. He weighed in at 380 pounds as recently as the Senior Bowl.
Cody's size (listed at 6'4'', 349 pounds) causes him to be stiff and slow, especially when attempting to rush the passer.
However, despite the flaws, Cody has the natural talent to be one of the best nose tackles in the league.
Cody's first season with Baltimore was very disappointing. He didn't get to play much due to other veterans in front of him on the depth chart. Cody also struggled adapting to the speed of the game. With a year under his belt, he will now be able to make a significant impact on the field.
And with the Ravens' release of Kelly Gregg, Cody now has a golden opportunity to shine in Baltimore. With nobody else to challenge his roster spot, I believe he will.

NFL Free Agency - The Best, Worst, Overrated and Underrated Signings

Thanks to the lockout, signings and trades originally planned for March had to be delayed until now, in late July.
Going through everything that has happened as of Thursday, I will list what I think are three best, worst, underrated and overrated free agent signings and trades of 2011 and also give reasons why.

Best:

Paul Posluszny – Jaguars – 6 years $45 Million, $15 Million Guaranteed

Posluszny has been one of the most productive linebackers in the league since 2008 with 397 total tackles in the last three years. Like seemingly most linebackers on teams switching to a 3-4, Posluszny prefers the 4-3 for his skills.
“That was a huge part of this decision for me,” he said. “I wanted to get back to a 4-3.”
He will get that in Jacksonville, where Posluszny is needed after losing Justin Durant to the Lions. The cost may be a tad much ($7.5 million per year), but Posluszny will step in and instantly be the best linebacker on a team that needs one.

Kevin Kolb – Cardinals – Traded from Eagles for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a second-round pick + 5 years $63.5 Million, $21 Million Guaranteed

Franchise quarterbacks are extremely tough to come by, as is the opportunity to acquire them. Kolb has the potential to be that franchise player for Arizona. His stats don't tell the real story, but as Michael Vick's backup in 2010, Kolb looked, at worst, surefooted to succeed at managing an offense.
The contract number may look high, but if he turns out to be Matt Schaub (another former Vick backup), the money will look like pocket change to the Cardinals.

Marshal Yanda – Ravens – 5 years $32 Million, $10 Million Guaranteed

Yanda has been a quality, versatile offensive linemen since tearing his ACL, MCL and PCL in 2008, starting 16 games at right tackle and nine at right guard for Baltimore the last two years. Head coach John Harbaugh has said he would prefer Yanda stay at right guard permanently for 2011.
Yanda isn't an elite player, but he provides something all NFL teams want – a tackle that can slide over to guard in a moment's notice. The contract is also very team-friendly, as less than a third of his deal is guaranteed.


Worst:

Sidney Rice – Seahawks – 5 years $41 Million, $18 Million Guaranteed

With a healthy Brett Favre at the helm of the Vikings offense, Rice put up monster numbers in 2009. 83 catches for 1,312 yards and eight touchdowns. The negative side? In his three other years with Minnesota, Rice has averaged 21 catches for 272 yards and three touchdowns. His problem isn't talent, it's health. Committing five years and $18 million to a wide receiver with chronic knee problems isn't my idea of a wise signing.

Charles Johnson – Panthers – 6 years $72 Million, $32 Million Guaranteed

Admittedly, yes, hyper-productive pass rushers are the second-highest commodity in the NFL (behind quarterbacks), so when you get one, hold on to him. But is Johnson a “hyper-productive” pass rusher?
Dwight Freeney and Jared Allen both signed similar deals in their respective careers. In the four years before Freeney signed his deal, he accrued 43.5 sacks. Allen racked up 43 sacks in the four seasons before his monster deal in 2008. How many sacks did Johnson have in his previous four years? 21.5.

Brad Smith – Bills – 4 years $15 Million

Yes, the Bills need talent at wide receiver. Lee Evans is just a deep threat at this point in his career, Roscoe Parrish is a return specialist now and Stevie Johnson is the definition of inconsistent.
So the Bills went out looking for a consistent, possession wideout. And all they could find was Brad Smith? This is why they're the Bills. They draft C.J. Spiller instead of a quarterback or lineman, and they sign a former college quarterback who's best skill is returning. He will do nothing but be “Josh Cribbs lite” for poor Buffalo fans.

Underrated:

Justin Durant – Lions – 2 year deal

Durant has the potential to be a stud linebacker, but he needs a productive defensive line in front of him to cover up the linemen. He never got that in Jacksonville, where its defensive line always had problems protecting its linebackers. Durant will get that in Detroit where Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley will take care of the blockers, giving Durant the opportunity to maximize his potential.

Melvin Bullitt – Colts – Multi-year deal

Bullitt went from a no-name undrafted safety in 2007, to a fill-in for Bob Sanders, to the full time starting strong safety in Indianapolis in the upcoming 2011 season. Re-signing Bullitt was key to the Colts' success. Without him, Indy is down to guys like Chip Vaughn and Al Afalava to start at strong safety - something nobody needs to see. With rumors of St. Louis gaining interest, Indianapolis had to act quickly to keep Bullitt on the squad.

Ray McDonald – 49ers – 5 years $20 Million, $7 Million Guaranteed

The 49ers re-signing McDonald won't grab many headlines, but he is an important piece of the Niners' defense. He has been a quality reserve for the last three years in San Francisco, but looks to move up to a starting role in 2011. McDonald is an upfield penetrator at the 3-4 end spot, and with Aubrayo Franklin looking to leave, the 49ers need to keep as many players as they can.

Overrated:

Matt Hasselbeck – Titans – Multi-year deal

After being drafted eighth overall, Jake Locker is not ready to start day one for the Tennessee Titans due to the lockout-shortened offseason. So Tennessee needed someone to bridge the gap to Locker. It decided on 35-year-old Hasselbeck. The same Hasselbeck that threw 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. People remember the nice games he had in the playoffs last year, but not his overall body of work in 2010. Hasselbeck isn't a reliable enough option at quarterback for Tennessee, and I have a feeling Locker will get pushed into work sooner than expected.

Reggie Bush – Dolphins – Traded from Saints

Ever since being drafted second overall in 2006, Bush has failed to lived up to expectations. He has been nothing but a return specialist and a scat back. Bush was set to make $11.8 million in 2011, and both sides knew something had to be done. Instead of restructuring Bush's deal, the Saints decided to get some value while they could and traded him to Miami for safety Jonathon Amaya and an undisclosed draft pick.
Bush has said he wants to be the Dolphins' featured back. Miami drafted Daniel Thomas this year for that. Bush will have the same role he had in New Orleans, and to give up draft pick(s) for someone who hasn't lived up to any expectations in his time as a pro is indefensible.

Eric Weddle – Chargers – 5 years $40 Million, $19 Million Guaranteed

Weddle has been San Diego's starting free safety for the last three years. With only six career interceptions, nothing he does jumps off the page stat-wise. Weddle is an above-average safety. So San Diego decides to lock Weddle up for $40 million and $19 million guaranteed? Can you say “overpaid?”
Weddle does everything well, but nothing spectacular. Giving him that much money was a mistake.

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Atlanta Falcons Team Questions: Julio Jones and Dunta Robinson

As the NFL lockout ends, every team looks at its biggest question mark on the team, both offensively and defensively. I will do the same, discussing team-by-team one of the most important issues on both sides of the ball.

Atlanta Falcons
Offense – Was Julio Jones worth the draft picks?

Answer: Yes.
Atlanta entered the 2011 NFL Draft with one objective on its mind – Playmakers. The Falcons wanted playmakers to add to their already effective trio of Michael Turner, Roddy White and Matt Ryan. But Atlanta craved a big, physical wide receiver to play on the other side of White. So when the draft came along, Cleveland was on the clock, looking to trade, and Alabama's Julio Jones was on the board.
The Falcons traded their 2011 first- (27th overall), second- (59th), and fourth- (124th) round picks, as well as their 2012 first- and fourth- round picks.
Admittedly, yes, a high price to pay for a single player. But Julio Jones is a special player.
Jones is a 6-foot 3, 220 pound wideout with almost 10-inch hands to catch the football. In his three years in Alabama's pro-style offense, Jones caught 179 passes for 2,653 yards and 15 touchdowns.
Atlanta also has a need for a player like Jones. Falcon's wide receivers not named Roddy White caught 98 balls for 1122 yards and 7 touchdowns combined. Those seem like pretty gaudy numbers, but when it is considered that those stats are spread out over five different players, they don't seem nearly as impressive. Atlanta also prefers its wideouts to be very capable blockers, and Jones fits the bill, having to block for Mark Ingram in college.
Jones may not put up quite the kind of statistics that Falcons' fans are looking for in his first year, but don't fret. Jones will be a stud wide receiver in the NFL.

Defense – Will Dunta Robinson prove he's worth the money?

Answer: No.
In 2009, the Atlanta Falcons finished 21st in total defense by yards allowed. The worst part of the defense was defending the pass.
The cornerback with the most starts for the Falcons in 2009 was Chris Houston with 10 starts in the year.
Houston, a former second-round pick, was traded to the Detroit Lions during the 2010 NFL draft for a sixth-round pick and a swap of fifth-round picks.
To quell the problem, Atlanta went out in March of 2010 planning to break the bank on a top-flight cover corner. The free agent cornerbacks were a weak group in 2010, and Dunta Robinson was the best of the bunch.
Robinson was drafted by the Houston Texans in 2004 and had made himself into a valuable commodity for teams as a strong corner before becoming a free agent.
The Falcons set their sights on Robinson in order to shore up their secondary. Shortly after free agency opened, Adam Schefter reported Atlanta and Robinson had agreed on a contract.
Robinson's deal was a six-year, $57 million deal with $27 million guaranteed. Certainly not chump change, as he became the second-highest paid cornerback at the time, behind only Nnamdi Asomugha.
Robinson shouldn't be mentioned in the same sentence as Asomugha (except this one.)
Besides simply watching the two play, the statistics also back me up.
According to Football Outsiders, Asomugha had a 55 percent success rate in coverage during the last three years, while Robinson's was less than 44 percent.
He has 14 career interceptions, but hasn't picked off more than two in a season since his rookie year.
Robinson had an unspectacular year in his first season in Atlanta. He is a solid, above average cover corner, and definitely not worth the $8.5 million he will make this year alone.

Next Team: The Baltimore Ravens

Saturday, July 23, 2011

Arizona Cardinals Team Questions

As the NFL lockout draws to a close, every team looks at its biggest question mark on the team, both offensively and defensively. I will do the same, discussing team-by-team one of the most important issues on both sides of the ball.

Arizona Cardinals
Offense – Will Arizona solve its QB issue?

Answer: Probably.
The quarterback position was an unmitigated disaster in 2010, with three different players starting games at different times throughout the season – Derek Anderson, John Skelton, and Max Hall.
Cardinal fans would prefer to see none of these players start any games for their team in 2011.
Arizona has been linked to Kevin Kolb, who would provide an instant upgrade over all three of last year's starters.
Kolb went 2-3 as a starter last season with the Philadelphia Eagles, completing 60.8 percent of his passes and throwing seven touchdowns to seven interceptions. The stats don't jump off the page, but Kolb's 2010 statistics are misleading. He looked quite capable of managing an offense while Michael Vick was injured, and Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt wants his quarterbacks to do just that. Kolb on his worst day is still an improvement over the Cardinals' current QB corps.
However, Kolb is currently under contract with the Eagles, and would require significant compensation to Philadelphia in order to go to the desert.
The Eagles reportedly want a top-flight player as well as a high draft choice, and cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie's name has been thrown about. Rodgers-Cromartie is a young, talented corner who had a down year in 2010, and could very easily rebound to have an excellent career.
Arizona should do everything it can to get Kolb – even get rid of Rodgers-Cromartie. Twenty-six year-old franchise quarterbacks don't come easily, and should be acquired whenever possible.
The deal with Philadelphia looks sure to happen, and when paired with Larry Fitzgerald, Kolb can lead the Cardinals back to the postseason.

Defense – Will anyone step up as a leader?

Answer: For Arizona's sake, hopefully.
Arizona had plenty of problems in 2010, and its defense was a sizable part of them. The Cardinals finished 29th in yards given up and 30th in points given up. The problem for Arizona is not a lack of talent. The team is full of talented, athletic defenders such as recent first-round picks Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Dan Williams, recent mid-round pick like Alan Branch, Daryl Washington and Rashad Johnson, as well as veterans such as Darnell Dockett, Kerry Rhodes, Joey Porter and Adrian Wilson.
How could the defense struggle with such athletic talent on the field? The answer is leadership. Arizona lacks leaders on the field, someone to fire up the troops to get a huge third down stop (something the Cardinals finished 21st in).
Who on the defense will step up as a leader? Wilson, the team's longest tenured player, should have already been the team's primary leader, but clearly the fire wasn’t there the past few years.
Ken Whisenhunt, Arizona's head coach, has been pleased with Wilson's improvement in that area.
“He's grown tremendously as a leader,” Whisenhunt said. It's a start.
Williams, Arizona's first-round pick in 2010, had a slow start to his rookie year, but came on strong in the latter half of the season. He began his career at Tennessee with character and weight concerns, but matured in his senior year. He needs to do the same for Arizona.
Everybody knows who Dockett is, whether that is through his famous Twitter feed (@ddockett) or his breakout 2007 season, where he finished with 43 total tackles, seven sacks, and a pair of forced fumbles.
However, perhaps what Dockett needs to do is stop the tweeting and take control of the locker room. He's already a great player – now it's time for him to become a great leader.

Next Team: The Atlanta Falcons

Friday, July 22, 2011

3-4 or 4-3?: A History Lesson on the Biggest Fad in Today's NFL

This is a post I have used for Bleacher Report and a school project. It is one of my favorite writings, so I've decided to use it as my opening blog post.


Introduction
Dwight Freeney.  Julius Peppers.  Michael Strahan.  These are some of the greatest pass rushers of the last 20 years.
All these names are synonymous with defense, and not just any defense, but a 4-3 defense.

Overview
If you are unsure of what the differences are between different styles of defenses, or if you have no clue about the styles, here is a rundown.
The major differences between a 4-3 and a 3-4 is how many people are on the line of scrimmage. The most general, basic 4-3s have four linemen with one or both of their hands in the ground.
This is where the four from the 4-3 comes in. The three is how many linebackers are behind them, standing up on both feet.
The 3-4 is, as you can imagine, the opposite. There are three linemen on the ground, with four linebackers behind them. But not all linemen are created equal.
In a 4-3 most of the time the linemen's duty is to get up field and wreak havoc on the quarterback or a running back behind the line scrimmage.
In a 3-4, the linemen's job, plainly and simply, is to take up space.
If you are reading this thinking, "Well where does the pass rush come from then?" then you are ahead of the game.
If you didn't think that, then you're just fine, too, because I'm about to explain it right now. In football, the pass rush usually comes from the edge, or around the offensive tackles.
That becomes part of the linebacker's job. The two outside linebackers come around the corner to make plays.

Facts
Now that you know the differences, it is time to decide what you would prefer. But before you make your decision, think about these facts:
Deacon Jones, who played in an era before sacks were kept track, claims he once had 26 in a season, which would be a still unbroken record today.
In fact, the reason that they are called "sacks" today is because of Deacon Jones.
He actually coined the term "sack" because when he did it, Jones wanted it to be like shoving the quarterback into a sack then beating over the sack with a baseball bat.
Yeah, he was rough.

Dick LeBeau
But that's not to say that the 3-4 doesn't have advantages. The 3-4 is becoming more and more popular today. The main reason for this, in my opinion, is Dick LeBeau.
LeBeau, in addition to being a Hall of Fame caliber cornerback ranking in the top ten of all time interceptions with 62 career picks, is also arguably a Hall of Fame coach.
He both created and installed the "zone blitz" into NFL history. The zone blitz is different from most blitzes because not of how many people are coming, but from where.
For example, LeBeau may send a corner to blitz, but have the 300+ pound nose tackle drop into shallow coverage. It messes up the protection schemes of the offensive line because there are still four people rushing, but from different angles.
Many NFL teams today, including The Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Houston Texans, Green Bay Packers and Washington Redskins have recently been implementing 3-4 packages, if not completely overhauling their defensive schemes to make the change to a 3-4.

Laurence Taylor
In addition to being popular with today's NFL, the 3-4 was a huge phenomenon because of a single player: Laurence Taylor. Taylor was a young, outside linebacker phenomenon for the New York Giants in the 1980's and early 90's.
He played with his hand up, on both feet in head coach Bill Parcells' 3-4 defense. Many consider him not only one of the greatest defenders in NFL history, but the most gameplanned for.
On every single play, before the snap, the quarterback had to say, "Where is number 56?" If not accounted for, Taylor would single-handedly change games, get quarterbacks benched, and offensive coaches fired.

Conclusion
I've done my part, now it's your turn. Which defense do you prefer? Let me know why in the comments. Either way, they both have the same goal, to not only stop opposing defenses, but to drive them backward.